Stirling scientists part of race to understand Greenland North Atlantic climate tipping point
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds within Earth’s systems – such as ice sheets, rainforests or ocean currents – beyond which change can become rapid, self-perpetuating and potentially irreversible
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Two University of Stirling researchers will play a key role in a five-year project to discover how quickly the ice sheet’s rapidly melting glaciers are pushing the Atlantic Ocean towards a critical climate tipping point.
Dr Anna Crawford, a Lecturer in Physical Geography, and Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dr Iain Wheel, are members of the GIANT (Greenland Ice sheet to AtlaNtic Tipping points) project, a large international collaboration of 17 partners led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).
Through GIANT, researchers hope to understand how much meltwater is released from Greenland’s fjord glaciers, how it enters the North Atlantic Ocean and how this process influences ocean circulation and the global climate system.
Despite the implications for lives and livelihoods around the world, scientists currently don’t have a clear picture of how Greenland’s fjord glaciers interact with the surrounding ocean, and the 200 or so narrow fjords have so far been impossible to capture in global computer models.
Dr Anna Crawford of the University of Stirling's Faculty of Natural Sciences.
Dr Anna Crawford, a glaciologist and Lecturer in Physical Geography at the University of Stirling, said: “The circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean is critical for global climate. That circulation could be disrupted by vast quantities of freshwater coming from the Greenland Ice Sheet as it loses mass due to climate change.
“ARIA's GIANT project is focused on Greenland's fjords, which are the connection points between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the open ocean.
“Stirling’s component of this international collaboration will focus on how the outlet glaciers that drain the Greenland Ice Sheet fracture and generate icebergs within these fjords.”
To gather unprecedented observations this summer, researchers will head to Greenland to deploy a sophisticated suite of technologies, including airborne drones, autonomous marine robots, satellites and instruments embedded directly into glacier ice.
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Researchers will head to Greenland later this year to carry out pioneering work (credit: Rob Larter).
This coordinated observing system will allow researchers to study glacier behaviour on all scales, from individual cracks in the ice all the way up to the flow of meltwater and icebergs into the North Atlantic. The data collected will feed directly into multiple computer models boosted by both machine learning and AI.
As a result, scientists will incorporate Greenland’s fjords into the UK’s main climate model and develop a prototype early warning system that could provide advance notice of rapid glacier change.
Cutting-edge climate modelling
Stirling researchers are specifically involved in the computer modelling work that will run in parallel with observational and field data collection.
A key strength of the GIANT project is that its computer modelling work will run alongside observational studies and the collection of data in the field.
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Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Through these experiments, we will reduce the complex calving process into a simple function that can be included in large-scale simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet and surrounding ocean.
Existing large-scale climate models, including the UK Earth System Model (UKESM), currently omit or misrepresent key processes occurring where Greenland’s glaciers meet the ocean.
GIANT will run a hierarchy of computer simulations of glaciers and fjords, at different scales, with the aim of incorporating fjords into the UKESM. By the end of the project, the new observations will allow us to build in everything from ice cracking and calving to the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic.
Dr Iain Wheel of the University of Stirling explained the institution’s specific contributions.
He said: “We will apply a range of specialised, 3D models to simulate iceberg calving. We will look to accurately simulate single calving events as well as seasonal and long-term trends.
“Through these experiments, we will reduce the complex calving process into a simple function that can be included in large-scale simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet and surrounding ocean.”
Professor Paul Holland of BAS is leading the computer modelling efforts for GIANT.
He said: “Trying to build modelling systems that can capture abrupt glacier change is bold and risky. The science is intricate, and there’s a real chance we won’t be able to predict sudden ice losses.
“But even if it doesn’t pan out, the insights we gain will improve the skill of climate forecasting and fill a gap that’s currently missing for our understanding of how Greenland might affect the ocean in the future.”
The race for an Early Warning System
Alongside climate modelling, GIANT will trial a prototype Early Warning System for glacier change.
This online system will combine satellite observations, field data, artificial intelligence and statistical glacier modelling to predict when ice loss into the North Atlantic might suddenly increase. The long-term vision is to create an operational early warning system for Greenland’s glaciers – one capable of flagging heightened risk of abrupt change.
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Sunset over Nuuk in Greenland (credit: Pierre Dutrieux).
The implications of Greenland’s melting glaciers extend far beyond the local people who live there. Locally, glacier collapse and retreat mean that fjords are freezing over later each year, and coastal communities can no longer rely on ice fishing for their livelihoods. Globally, the flow of freshwater into the North Atlantic could disrupt ocean circulation patterns that help regulate Europe’s climate and weather, while also contributing to global sea-level rise.
By working towards an Early Warning System, researchers hope they can provide crucial data to help governments prepare and adapt for the consequences of the planet’s changing climate.
Sarah Bohndiek, Programme Director for ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme, said: “We are currently unable to forecast when climate tipping points might be crossed, leaving us poorly equipped to handle the potentially irreversible consequences of tipping points in Greenland and the Subpolar Gyre.
Developing an early warning system is necessary to provide governments, industry and society more broadly the information they need to build resilience and accelerate proactive climate adaptation."
UN Sustainable development goals
The University of Stirling is ranked among the top 200 institutions in the world for its contribution to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The research or activity detailed above relates to the following SDGs.
